Ming-Chi Kuo, a reliable analyst at KGI Securities, predicts that the lack of important changes in the upcoming iPhone 7 smartphone could result in ovreall sales lower than the company saw in 2014. Kuo has a strong track record when it comes to Apple predictions, and his latest note should be taken with some seriousness.

In what he sees as a worst case scenario, iPhone shipments in 2016 will be lower than what the company had in 2014. Furthermore, Kuo anticipates that Apple will be the only top-five smartphone brand to see a decline in shipments year over year. He sepects that Apple will ship 190 million iPhones during 2016, which is lower than the 193 million it shipped in 2014.

In the best case scenario, Apple could ship 205 million devices. That’s a decline of 18.1 percent and 11.6 percent year-over-year, respectively.

The reson for those low sales are the little impact on Apple’s overall performance of the recently released iPhone SE, and the lack of "many attractive selling points for the iPhone 7." Building on that, he says that the iPhone needs a visual redesign and new commercial features in order to keep attracting customers.

The analyst ia optimistic for 2017. He has already predicted that Apple will refresh the iPhone design with an all-glass, iPhone 4-esque look. Additionally, the company is likely to make the switch to AMOLED displays and could also introduce a new 5.8-inch model.