According to Forrester Research, an independent technology and market research company, Blu-ray will likely win a "pyrrhic victory" over HD-DVD in the next DVD technology war, although it isn't expected to be a quick victory.
Ted Schadler, a Forrester analyst has said that "After a long and tedious run-up to the launch, it is now clear to Forrester that the Sony-led Blu-ray format will win. But unless the HD DVD group abandons the field, it will be another two years before consumers are confident enough of the winner to think about buying a new-format DVD player." Another factor that isn't going to make consumers rush out and switch to the HD formats, is the fact that High Definition is not widespread and the quality of DVD is still good enough. It is very unlikely that people will buy old titles released in HD format, preferring instead to opt for current and new movie titles.
The reasons for Blu-ray eventually prevailing, according to Schadler, include the fact that Blu-ray is a format designed not only for video playback, as is HD DVD, but also for computers and games, where Sony's game consoles play a major role. Blu-ray also offers greater capacity than HD-DVD and there are already rumours that the next generation of games are already overflowing the 25GB capacity provided by single layer Blu-ray media. And when former HD DVD loyalist Paramount endorsed Blu-ray, it shifted the movie studio momentum. Finally, although Blu-ray manufacturing will cost a little more initially, it offers more capacity and employs a proven technology, Java, for interactive features.
Media coverage will also play a major role, helping shape consumer opinion as to which format is better.