Worldwide combined shipments of devices (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are projected to reach 2.32 billion units in 2013, a 4.5 percent increase from 2012, according to Gartner, Inc. The market is being driven by a shift to lower-priced devices in nearly all device categories.
Gartner forecasts that worldwide shipments of traditional PCs (desk-based and notebook) will total 303 million units in 2013, an 11.2 percent decline from 2012, and the PC market, including ultramobiles, is forecast to decline 8.4 percent in 2013. Mobile phone shipments are projected to grow 3.7 percent, with volume of more than 1.8 billion
units.
Tablet shipments are expected to grow 42.7 percent this year, with shipments reaching
184 million units. Premium tablets are faced with continued price decline in the 7-inch
form factor as a larger number of consumers prefer smaller form factors when it comes
to content consumption. A recent consumer study that Gartner conducted in Brazil,
China, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K., the U.S. and Japan showed that smaller is
better when it comes to consumer tablets. The survey showed that the average screen
sizes of the tablets in use across the countries ranged from 8.3 inches to 9.5 inches.
Forty-seven percent of the 21,500 consumers surveyed owned a tablet that was 8 inches
or less.
Worldwide Device
Shipments by Segment (Thousands of Units)
Device
Type |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
PC (Desk-Based and
Notebook) |
341,273 |
303,100 |
281,568 |
Ultramobile |
9,787 |
18,598 |
39,896 |
Tablet |
120,203 |
184,431 |
263,229 |
Mobile
Phone |
1,746,177 |
1,810,304 |
1,905,030 |
Total |
2,217,440 |
2,316,433 |
2,489,723 |
Source: Gartner (October
2013)
As the third-quarter earnings season comes to an end, it is clear that our caution for
2013 was well placed as vendors are transitioning their portfolios to the new Intel
processors Bay Trail and Haswell, as well as rolling out products that are based on the
Windows 8.1 release.
"While consumers will be bombarded with ads for the new ultramobile devices, we expect their attention to be grabbed but not necessarily their money," said Carolina Milanesi, research vice president at Gartner. "Continuing on the trend we saw last year, we expect this holiday season to be all about smaller tablets as even the long-term
holiday favorite - the smartphone - loses its appeal.
"Although the preference is for dedicated devices, we see the opportunity for hybrid
ultramobile to marry the functionality of a PC and the form factor of the tablet. Users
that have to balance work and play will find that the advantage of buying and carrying
one device outweighs the compromise in the full experience that single devices can
deliver," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Users who are not limited
by their disposable income will likely have a basic tablet as a companion device to
their ultramobile on which most of their consumption activities will take place."
Worldwide Device
Shipments by Operating System (Thousands of Units)
Operating
System |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
Android |
505,509 |
879,910 |
1,115,289 |
Windows |
346,468 |
331,559 |
363,803 |
iOS/MacOS |
212,875 |
271,949 |
338,106 |
RIM |
34,584 |
23,103 |
19,297 |
Others |
1,118,004 |
809,912 |
653,228 |
Total |
2,217,440 |
2,316,433 |
2,489,723 |
Source: Gartner (October
2013)
Gartner expects the mobile phone market to continue to experience steady growth, but
the opportunity for high average selling price (ASP) smartphones is now ending. Growth is expected to come from mid-tier smartphones in mature markets and low-end Android smartphones in emerging markets.
Microsoft's acquisition of Nokia doesn't have a major impact on the forecast, because
Gartner already assumed that Nokia would have accounted for the vast majority of
Windows Phone share throughout the forecast, with only minimal volume coming from other OEMs, such as HTC or Samsung.
"Windows Phone challenges in the smartphone market remain the same, with the need to bring on board more developers and enrich the ecosystem, as well as turning the Windows Phone brand into a cool smartphone brand. While there are clear benefits to the acquisition, such as channel strength, carrier relationship and emerging-market
knowledge, the brand and ecosystem do not directly benefit from it," said Ms. Milanesi.
The end of Windows XP support in 2014 isn't expected to impact device sales, as Gartner
says 90 percent of large enterprises have either migrated or are migrating to Windows 7
or Windows 8.
Android will remain the leading device operating system (OS), as it is on pace to
account for 38 percent of shipments in 2013 (see Table 2). The Windows OS is projected
to decline 4.3 percent in 2013 as a result of the decline in traditional PC sales, but
will return to growth in 2014 with device OS shipments increasing 9.7 percent.
Top technology providers see wearable devices as an important market opportunity;
however, Gartner expects that wearable devices will primarily remain a companion to
mobile phones. Less than 1 percent of consumers will actually replace their mobile
phones with a combination of a wearable device and a tablet by 2017.
"For wearables to be successful, they need to add to the user experience by
complementing and enhancing what other devices already offer. They also need to be
stylish yet practical, and most of all hit the right price," said Ms. Milanesi. "In the
short term, we expect consumers to look at wearables as nice to have rather than a
"must have," leaving smartphones to play the role of our faithful companion throughout
the day."