Worldwide revenues for microprocessors designed for mobile PCs, desktop PCs, and PC servers will grow 1.6% to $40.7 billion in 2013 according to a forecast report from International Data Corporation (IDC).
The IDC report also forecasts that worldwide unit shipments for PC microprocessors will grow 3.2% to nearly 384 million units in 2013.
"Economic and technological inhibitors that took the PC microprocessor revenue down about 2.4% in 2012 will continue through the first half of 2013," said Shane Rau, vice president for PC and server semiconductor and enabling technologies research at IDC. "Macroeconomic uncertainty has forced OEM and IT customers to reduce orders and focus on execution, and reduce expectations after the launch of Microsoft's Windows 8 operating system in late October. Delays in PC purchases caused by Windows 8 and the encroachment of media tablets on low-end PCs have further cut into PC microprocessor demand growth."
IDC claims that for mobile PCs, the tablet versus PC competition in 2013 will establish for ensuing years a significant fault line in the PC client system and so the PC microprocessor space. On one side of this fault line will be x86- and ARM-based mobile PCs with 13.3-inch or smaller screens and Windows 8 targeted at low-power and productivity applications. On the other side of this line will be x86-based mobile PCs with 14-inch and larger screens targeted at high performance applications. IDC estimates that 3.3% of mobile PC processors will be based on the ARM architecture by 2016.
For servers, the prospect of ARM processors encroachment on a market segment dominated by x86 processors is more distant than it is in the client space. x86-based processors are scaling upwards and outwards in terms of performance and their application reach into high-end computing applications. IDC estimates that 3.2% of PC server processors will be based on the ARM architecture by 2016.
IDC estimates that worldwide PC microprocessor market revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% for the period 2011 through 2016. Unit shipments will grow at a CAGR of 3.2% for the same period.
"For vendors of microprocessors and other PC technologies, the future belongs to those who can best execute on a vision of what computing ultimately should be and how users assess the value to them," added Rau. "Vendors should strive for an increased perception of value so systems can be sold on their utility and not merely their price. Such a transformation requires time for assessment and education along the value chain. It also requires sustained investments in the PC ecosystem distinct from the investments going into the hot tablet ecosystem."