After worldwide declines in 2009 and 2010 and
single-digit growth in 2011, IDC projects revenue for
dedicated handheld gaming hardware and software will
rise roughly 20% in 2012.
According to a new mobile and portable video game
market forecast by IDC, although smartphone and media
tablet gaming platforms are poised to take some share
from dedicated handhelds like Nintendo's DSi and 3DS
and Sony's PlayStation Portable (PSP) and Vita over
the next several years, the game is far from over for
dedicated handhelds.
"Especially given the 3DS price drop in mid-2011 and
in light of respectable initial demand for Vita in
Japan this past December, it appears that 2012 is
shaping up to be a rebound year for dedicated
handhelds," says Lewis Ward, IDC's research manager
for gaming. "It's absolutely true that a mind-boggling
number of games have been downloaded to iOS- and
Android-powered devices in the past year, but only a
fraction of those games were paid for and most of
those were of the $1 to $3 variety."
As a result, revenue dynamics aren't as nearly slanted
against dedicated handhelds as game download growth
curves suggest. Much of the rebound in the dedicated
handheld space in 2012 and 2013 will be driven by
premium-priced hardware and software sales associated
with 3DS and Vita.
"An interesting piece of this story is what's
happening demographically," adds Ward. "The
penetration rate of paying gamers is much higher in
the child and teen segment for dedicated handhelds
than it is for cell phone or media tablet gamers. As
long as dedicated handheld OEMs and physical format
portable game developers/publishers can hold serve in
the demographic niches where they currently have a
substantial advantage, I expect their revenue
opportunities moving forward to remain substantial."
In aggregate, IDC forecasts that worldwide dedicated
handheld, cell phone, media tablet video game software
revenue will rise from $14.7 billion in 2012 to a
little over $20 billion in 2015. The revenue split
between dedicated handhelds and phones/tablets is
forecast to move in the direction of phones/tablets by
less than 4% in this period.
"Mobile and portable gaming is clearly a positive
industry growth area," Ward says. "Since weak
macroeconomic conditions are likely to prevail in many
key advanced industrial nations over the next few
years, much of this growth will likely occur in BRIC
nations and a handful of other emerging economies, and
be more casual/social cell phone gaming oriented."