The Japan Recording-Media Industries Association, announced its forecasts for global demand and production of recording media products based on its estimates for 2006.
In its annual analysis, the Japan Recording Media Industries Association (JRIA) provided an analysis of the current year, providing estimates of demands for consumer- type recordable audio and video tape products and CD-R, CD-RW, DVD+/-R, and DVD-Rewritable optical disc formats. This year, JRIA has also provided estimates and projections for demand growth for each format through 2009.
Global demand for Data CD-Rs
- Global demand for data CD-Rs is declining after peaking in 2005. Global demand in 2007 will fall 7% from 2006 to 6,556 million units, 7% in 2008 to 6,098 million units, and a further 8% in 2009 to 5,593 million units. Demand is shifting from data CD-Rs to write-once DVDs as applications expand and need for higher capacities increases, and demand for write-once DVDs is expected to exceed that for a data CD-Rs in 2008.
Global demand for Audio CD-Rs - Global demand for audio CD-Rs has declined since peaking in 2004, and will fall in 2007 by 6% to 258 million units, by 7% in 2008 to 240 million units, and by 6% in 2009 to 225 million units. Portable digital audio
devices that use HDDs and the expansion of music download via the Internet are having significant impact on demand.
Global production of CD-Rs
- Global production of CD-Rs is forecast to decline by 7% in 2007 from 2006 to 7,495 million units, by 7% in 2008 to 6,972 million units, and by 8% in 2009 to 6,400 million units. In response to inventory adjustments and the increase in demand for recordable DVDs, domestic and overseas makers are withdrawing from CD-R production or shifting production from CD-Rs to recordable DVDs.
Global demand for Data and Audio CD-RWs
- Global demand for data and audio CD-RWs will continue to decline. Global demand is forecast to fall by 8% in 2007 to 225 million units, by 9% in 2008 to 205 million units, and by 9% in 2009 to 187 million units. Competition with other re-writable media including recordable DVDs, compact memory cards, and USB memory devices is the primary factor behind the expected decline in demand.
Global demand for Write-once DVDs
- Global demand for write-once DVDs will grow at a strong pace, up by 21% to 5,727 million units in 2007, by 13% to 6,489 million units in 2008, and by 7% to 6,923 million units in 2009.
Global demand for Re-writable DVDs
- Global demand for re-writable DVDs is also expected to increase at a stable pace, growing by 21% in 2007 to 495 million units, by 8% in 2008 to 533 million units, and by 2% in 2009 to 541 million units. Global demand for recordable DVDs including both write-once DVDs and re-writable DVDs will exceed demand for recordable CDs including data and audio CD-Rs in 2008.
The increase in the recordable DVD market is supported by strong shipments of PCs and DVD recorders, with write-once DVDs accounting for 92% of the forecast demand for 2007. Write-once DVDs are the easiest to use for PC and DVD recorder users, and their low prices have enhanced acceptance.
CPRM-compatible re-writable DVDs are attracting attention as the suitable media for recording digital television broadcasts, supported by the expansion of digital television broadcasting in Japan, and although demand is currently low, it is expected to grow at a steady pace.
Demand for Video and Data DVD sector
- In Japan, in the video and data DVD sector, in 2007 demand for video DVDs will grow to 556 million units, accounting for 57% of the total, and demand for data disks will increase 43% to 421 million units. In 2009, demand for video DVDs will increase 53% to 579 million units and demand for data disks will grow 47% to 517 million units, with demand for both video and data disks remaining at comparable levels. The strength of demand in Japan for video DVDs is now apparent. Write-once disks accounted for high percentages of both video and data DVDs, particularly for data, of which an overwhelming 97% of
disks are write-once.
Global demand for 8cm DVD Media
- Global demand for write-once and re-writable 8cm DVD media is expected to reach 111 million disks in 2008, surpassing the 100 million disk level. In 2007, write-once media are forecast to account for 62% of the total, and re-writable media 38% of the total. In many cases, users re-record data and store it on other recording media after recording on 8cm DVD media, and as a result the percentage of re-writable media is relatively high compared to 12cm DVDs. The 8cm market volume is highest in North America, followed by Europe.
In the camcorder market, competition is fierce with DVDs, HDDs, and card media as successors to Mini DVs, but DVDs have established infrastructure for recording and playback and are
expected to remain the leading media for the foreseeable future.
Global production of Recordable DVD
- Recordable DVD global production is forecast to continue expanding at a strong pace, with production of write-once disks increasing from 6,300 million units in 2007 to 7,615 million units in 2009 and production of re-writable disks growing from 545 million disks to 595 million disks over the same period.
Production by overseas (outside Japan)manufacturers of both write-once and re-writable disks accounted for more than 60% of the total in 2005, and this figure is expected to reach 66% in 2009.
Blue Laser Disks (including BDs and HD DVDs)
Global demand for Blue Laser Disks
? Global demand for blue laser disks is forecast to reach 10 million units in 2007, 52 million units in 2008, and 141 million units in 2009.
With the penetration increase of large-screen high-definition televisions and AV-type PCs in conjunction with the start of terrestrial digital broadcasts in Japan, demand for large-capacity disks is expected to increase. Various PCs and recorders including blue laser disk drives are being released and an environment for widespread adoption is being developed, supporting the generally accepted view that demand will
take off starting in about 2009.