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Monday, November 18, 2002
Consumers will spark 200% rise in recordable DVD sales in 2003


Recordable DVD drives, media and applications will experience dramatic growth next year and through at least 2006, Jon Peddie, president of Jon Peddie Research, told attendees of the Recordable DVD Council (RDVDC) ISV meeting here today. Speaking to more than 100 executives from hardware, software and solutions firms prior to the beginning of Comdex, he emphasized that sophisticated consumers and digital Darwinism or the laws of nature should guide firms' product plans, not bold new experiments.

"When the computer industry stalled this year, IT manufacturers and suppliers finally told the marketplace that the majority of technology they bought to do everything was actually too complicated, too impractical and too expensive," he said. "Many in the industry are now approaching video and DVD with the same philosophy, saying they will succeed by delivering the all-in-one box that incorporates TV, DVD, MP3, PVR, game console, home RF and more.

"These new life forms will appear and disappear because they are based on what the company can do, rather than on what the consumer wants," he emphasized.

Peddie, a leading digital media market researcher and consultant, pointed out that people are buying digital cameras and camcorders because they want to preserve memories, share them later with others and simply for pure enjoyment. "Photography is an almost universal pursuit," he said. "Regardless of a person's life stage, education or profession, they like to create their own video content and share it. This will provide the momentum for triple-digit sales at least through 2006 for cameras, camcorders, DVD writers and creation software."

During his presentation, Peddie said DVD Forum-standard DVD drives had overcome the price and compatibility hurdles to stimulate consumer demand. He pointed out that multifunction drives -- supporting DVD-R, -RW and/or -RAM as well as CD-R/RW -- have street prices as low as $249 and write-once media can be purchased for as little as $.60 a disc. In addition, the new DVD recorders that incorporate both a hard drive and DVD drive are priced under $500, making them affordable for people to capture, edit and watch television programs on their own terms.

While he acknowledged that there is a CE and PC convergence taking place, he emphasized that consumers -- the business environment mediators -- determine which products survive or fail, and their decisions are usually based on widely accepted standards.

The Recordable DVD Council sponsored the ISV Meeting as part of its commitment to assist software and hardware vendors by promoting a better understanding of the three DVD Forum-approved recordable DVD formats -- DVD-RAM, DVD-R and DVD-RW. The rapidly growing international organization was formed in April 2001 to help businesses and consumers understand the benefits of the proven standards and their use in audio, video and computer devices such as DVD recorders, DVD drives, DVD cameras and other applications.

During the afternoon event, Executive Members of the Council discussed the current state of recordable DVD technologies and products, new consumer and business applications and the industry's international product certification/verification program.

For more information on Jon Peddie Research or a copy of Peddie's presentation, call JPR at 415.435.9368; fax 435.8214 or jon@jonpeddie.com.


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