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Friday, November 14, 2008
JRIA Predicts Strong Demand For Blu-ray Discs

The Japan Recording-Media Industries Association (JRIA) announced today its forecast for global demand and production of Blu-ray media based on estimates for 2008.

According to the report, global demand for Blue laser discs (Blu-ray and HD DVD) in 2008 will be increased by 400% (20 million units), compared to last year. Based on these figures, JRIA estimates that the demand will be further increased in 2009 in a total amount of 64 million units, which is translated to an annual increase of 320%. The demand for the Blue laser discs will peak in 2011, where the forecast indicates a worldwide total demand of 279 million units.

Demand for Blue laser discs (BD, HD DVD) Percentage shows comparison with previous year
2009 (prediction)
2010 (prediction)
2011 (prediction)
16 million units (400%)
43 million units (369%)
87 million units (202%)
132 million units (152%)
Other regions
4 million units (400%)
21 million units (525%)
65 million units (310%)
167 million units (226%)
20 million units (400%)
64 million units (320%)
152 million units (238%)
279 million units (184%)

JRIA also said that the Beijing Olympic games last August lead to a significant boom in the sales of Blu-ray discs in Japan, since the Japanese consumers have replaced their DVD recorders with new Blu-ray recorders. JRIA estimates that the situation will change by 2011, with the overseas demand for BD discs to exceed the domestic, as Blu-ray recorders will be widely available worldwide. Panasonic has already announced its plans to release its Blu-ray recording devices in the U.S. and Europe this year.

JRIA also believes that there will be an increase in the demand for Blu-ray discs for data recording on the PC in the following years. The Association estimates that the Blu-ray recordable discs will slowly start to replace the DVD recordable media for PC use after 2009.

Demand for Recordable DVD discs Percentage shows comparison with previous year
2009 (prediction)
2010 (prediction)
2011 (prediction)
949 million units (107%)
977 million units (103%)
952 million units (97%)
908million units (95%)
North America
1893 million units (105%)
1,926 million units (102%)
1,870 million units (97%)
1,786 million units (96%)
Europe 2180 million units (105%) 2,228 million units (102%) 2,189 million units (98%) 2,123 million units (97%)
Other regions 815 million units (114%) 878 million units (108%) 910 million units (104%) 905 million units (99%)
5,837 million units (106%)
6,009 million units (103%)
5,921 million units (99%)
5,722 million units (97%)

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