The Japan Recording Media Industries Association (JRIA) announced its forecast for global demand and production of recording media based on estimates for 2007.
Global demand for write-once DVDs in 2008 will increase by 12% and further 2% in 2010 (6.649 units). Although the growth rate will fall into single digits in 2009, demand will continue to expand. Write-once DVDs are the easiest-to -use media for PC and DVD recorder users and they are inexpensive, making them highly appealing. In addition, the expansion of the terrestrial digital broadcasts in Japan is driving the demand for CPRM media that can be used for copy controlled digital TV broadcasts, and it is expected that the addition of "Dubbing 10" function
to DVD recorders will further stimulate the demand. The forecast of demand declining in 2010 takes into consideration the appearance of blue laser disks.
Recordable DVDs global production os expected to be in the double digits in 2008, with production of write-once DVDs increasing by 12%. Although production will slow approaching 2010, it is expected to continue increasing. The introduction of the blue laser disks in 2010 will shift away production from recordable DVDs.
Global demand for re-writable DVDs will increase by 6% in 2008 to 487 million units but will decrease by 3% in 2010, and is expected to continue decreasing after 2010. The mainstream re-writable DVDs are still 2x and 4x speed. Competition with other storage media including USB memory devices will decrease re-writable DVD demand for PC applications.
Blue laser discs
Global demand for blue laser discs (BD and HD DVDs) is forecast to reach 24 million units in 2008 and 215 million units in 2010, with global market expansion starting in 2010. As high-def TVs continue to penetrate the market and the use of AV-type PCs increases in Japan, user-oriented players and recorders from both BD and HD DVD makers will be announced, forming an environment for rapid growth in demand.
Global demand for data CD-Rs in 2008 will fall by 7% from 2007 and a further 8% in 2010. Demand is shifting to write-once DVDs. As a result, global production of CD-Rs is expected to decline by 7% in 2008 and by 9% in 2010.
Global demand for audio CD-Rs in 2008 will fall by 6% from 2007 and will further decrease by 7% in 2010. Portable audio devices that use HDDs and the expansion of music downloading via the internet are having a significant impact on demand on a global scale.
The product categories addressed in JRIA's survey also include magneto-optical (MO) disks, magnetic tapes, floppy discs and compact memory cards. For aditional information visit http://www.jria.org/