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Thursday, November 04, 2004
Digital Video Recorders: The next essential consumer electronics product


After a slow start since 1999, the DVR (also known as the Personal Video Recorder) is expected to enjoy massive growth from 2005, according to a new report from Informa Media Group.

By year-end 2004, Informa expects 9 million installed DVRs globally. However, Digital Video Recorder Forecasts predicts that this figure will rocket to 120 million by end-2010 ? or 11% of global TV households and 33% of digital TV homes.

After a slow start since 1999, the DVR (also known as the Personal Video Recorder) is expected to enjoy massive growth from 2005, according to a new report from Informa Media Group. By year-end 2004, Informa expects 9 million installed DVRs globally. However, Digital Video Recorder Forecasts predicts that this figure will rocket to 120 million by end-2010 ? or 11% of global TV households and 33% of digital TV homes.

Global DVR homes by delivery platform (000)
  2003 2004 2005 2010
Digital Cable 2,356 4,240 7,995 79,013
DSL 16 45 158 5,093
Digital DTH 2,602 4,935 7,706 30,140
DTT 1 22 115 5,691
Total 4,975 9,243 15,973 119,936

Source: Informa Media Group
Note: Figures refer to year-end.

2005 will be the watershed year, with many digital platforms launching their own branded services. Growth in the following years will be dramatic and will increase exponentially in the forecast years. Stand-alone DVRs will become less and less commonplace, with the vast majority of DVR functionality incorporated into settop boxes provided by the delivery platforms. Penetration will initially be higher in digital DTH homes, but digital cable and DSL TV take-up will catch-up. Sales of DVRs will be lower in digital terrestrial homes due to the limited choice of channels and the assumption that these homes will be less interested in TV viewing. The forecasts further assume no DVR sales in analogue households.

By 2010, 120 million homes are forecast to enjoy DVR functionality – an astonishing change from the present situation. Digital cable homes will represent 66% of the 2010 total, up from 47% in 2003. Digital DTH will account for 25% of the 2010 total, with DSL bringing in 4% and DTT 5%.

This 120 million figure represents 11% of global TV households, though DVR penetration rises to as high as 48% in North America . The 120 million figure also represents 33% of global digital households. North America alone will have 54 million DVR homes by 2010 – or 45% of the global total.

DVR households by region (000)

 

2003

2004

2005

2010

Asia Pacific

129

341

881

32,244

Europe

330

852

2,088

30,764

Latin America

0

0

53

3,017

North America

4,516

8,051

12,952

53,911

Global

4,975

9,243

15,973

119,936

Source: Informa Media Group
Note: Figures refer to year-end.

Penetration will vary from one country to the next depending on retail price (or rental price) of the hardware and whether a monthly subscription fee is charged. Monthly fees are charged by some platforms due to the DVR using the Electronic Programming Guide to download viewers’ preferences.

The forecasts assume that TiVo will not win its legal action against EchoStar. TiVo claims that it owns the copyright to all DVR functionality. If it wins the case, then the operators would probably have to pay TiVo a licensing fee for each STB that includes DVR functionality. Therefore the operators may become less inclined to heavily promote the service.

DVR penetration (%)

 

2003

2004

2005

2010

of digital TV homes

 

 

 

 

Asia Pacific

1

2

3

25

Europe

1

2

4

28

Latin America

0

0

1

24

North America

9

14

19

48

Total

5

8

11

33

 

 

 

 

 

of TV homes

 

 

 

 

Asia Pacific

0

0

0

5

Europe

0

0

1

13

Latin America

0

0

0

3

North America

4

7

11

43

Total

0

1

2

11

Source: Informa Media Group
Note: Figures refer to year-end.

Digital Video Recorder Forecasts is published by Informa Media Group, which produces many business intelligence documents, including the TV International and New Media Markets newsletters. The report will be published in November. Contact details: Simon Murray ( simon.m urray@informa.com . Tel: 020 7017 4262).

From informamedia.com



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