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Wednesday, August 25, 2004
Recorders to hit the DVD jackpot!

The DVD hardware market is about to enjoy its second boom as the DVD recorder is poised to take off, according to a new report from Informa Media Group.

About a quarter of the world?s TV households own a DVD player, but Global DVD & Video Forecasts states that penetration is already above 50% in several developed territories. These countries will provide the initial target for the DVD recorder boom as retail prices begin to fall below $200.

Simon Murray, author of the report, said: ?The DVD recorder market is set to take off extremely quickly for exactly the same reasons as the DVD player ? low retail prices.?

By 2010, 31% of global TV households will have a DVD recorder ? or 334 million homes. This represents extraordinary growth considering that the number was only 5 million at the end of 2003. Open standards will be available towards the end of the forecast period, which should stimulate demand.

More than 11 million DVD recorder homes are forecast to be added in 2004 alone, with a further 25 million in 2005. However, the market is expected to nearly double in 2006, and will reach 334 million homes by 2010.

Meanwhile, the DVD player boom continues, with the addition of 70 million player homes in 2004, and compares against only 3% penetration in 2002. Global DVD player penetration is forecast to reach 46% by 2010 ? double the 2004 figure.

About 232 million DVD player homes are expected by end-2004, more than 200 million more than the 2000 figure. Another 68 million homes are forecast to be added in 2005 alone, with the total reaching 493 million by 2010.

North America will supply 29% of the 2004 total, but the region?s influence has already waned from the 56% share in 2000. By 2010, North America will only account for 23% of the world?s total. Despite this, the U.S. will remain the largest DVD nation, edging over 100 million homes. Asia Pacific will keep a 35-39% share, thanks initially to fast take-up in Japan and helped in the longer term by rising penetration in China and, to a lesser extent, India.

Europe is expected to increase its installed base by 50% in 2004 to 46.5 million. This growth is not likely to come from the big five countries, but mainly from the smaller ones, which have so far been slower to buy. Germany is the largest DVD market in Europe by hardware sold, though the UK has a far bigger DVD software sector.

The phenomenal rise of the DVD has spelt bad news for the VCR market. However, more than half the world?s TV homes ? 500 million still have and use at least one VCR. The VCR will retain its dominance over the DVD in developing countries for some time to come.

There will be more DVD homes than VCR ones by 2009. By end-2009, 473 million homes will have DVD players, compared with 443 million with VCRs. These figures are not mutually exclusive, so many of these VCRs will be for secondary usage in DVD homes.

Global DVD & Video Forecasts is published by Informa Media Group, which produces several business information documents, including the New Media Markets and Screen Finance newsletters. The report will be published in July. Contact details: Simon Murray ( . Tel: 020 7017 4262)

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